* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 58 58 58 58 60 64 63 59 52 40 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 58 58 58 58 60 64 63 59 52 40 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 59 60 59 58 58 59 62 64 61 53 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 13 12 1 2 2 7 15 23 32 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 12 18 14 14 13 7 3 0 0 8 15 11 SHEAR DIR 300 282 267 242 258 312 150 308 287 286 262 250 304 SST (C) 24.5 24.9 25.0 25.5 26.0 26.2 26.2 26.0 25.5 24.8 23.5 22.1 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 102 105 105 109 113 114 115 115 113 109 99 90 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 91 92 95 98 97 99 104 105 102 92 81 77 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.8 -54.1 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 4 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 29 30 30 30 31 42 46 52 54 52 42 38 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 29 29 30 32 33 34 32 31 28 25 850 MB ENV VOR 66 62 48 29 10 5 -16 -48 -23 6 17 39 15 200 MB DIV 12 -25 -42 -20 -33 -22 -12 15 50 43 23 36 10 700-850 TADV -1 2 0 -1 -2 1 6 4 7 -9 -78 -93 -82 LAND (KM) 1631 1752 1875 1987 2100 2264 2314 2289 1992 1603 1221 848 567 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 32.5 31.6 30.7 29.7 28.4 28.3 28.9 30.3 32.3 34.7 36.5 37.4 LONG(DEG W) 45.0 44.2 43.4 43.0 42.6 41.8 40.8 38.4 34.6 29.3 23.1 18.4 15.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 5 8 14 22 26 25 17 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 9. 5. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 9. 8. 4. -3. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 33.4 45.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 466.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.44 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.04 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 20.3% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 2.6% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 7.6% 6.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/09/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 58 58 58 58 58 60 64 63 59 52 40 18HR AGO 55 54 55 55 55 55 55 57 61 60 56 49 37 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 51 51 51 53 57 56 52 45 33 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 45 45 47 51 50 46 39 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT