* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 53 54 54 56 57 62 63 63 62 57 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 53 54 54 56 57 62 63 63 62 57 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 54 54 54 53 54 58 62 64 62 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 12 14 15 9 9 6 5 6 13 25 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 14 18 12 12 2 0 1 5 9 13 12 SHEAR DIR 302 282 280 263 247 286 231 230 186 263 239 237 267 SST (C) 23.9 24.4 24.8 25.0 25.1 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.7 24.6 24.2 22.5 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 98 101 104 105 106 112 112 114 114 107 104 94 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 88 91 92 92 97 97 101 104 99 97 86 78 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.7 -54.2 -53.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.1 2.0 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 5 6 5 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 32 29 30 30 31 37 47 53 59 57 45 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 28 28 30 31 32 31 34 33 32 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 58 69 65 50 30 -2 -7 -60 -47 -25 41 85 43 200 MB DIV 24 22 -27 -51 -23 -46 13 -7 44 36 80 41 -11 700-850 TADV 6 -1 2 0 -2 1 2 10 2 8 -41 -139 -94 LAND (KM) 1503 1610 1718 1838 1959 2166 2262 2305 2041 1697 1369 987 606 LAT (DEG N) 34.2 33.5 32.8 31.9 31.0 29.4 28.9 29.1 30.0 31.7 34.3 37.3 40.6 LONG(DEG W) 46.3 45.3 44.3 43.5 42.8 41.7 40.6 38.5 35.3 30.7 25.3 20.3 16.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 7 7 12 18 24 26 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 12. 13. 13. 12. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 34.2 46.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 423.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.49 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 18.9% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 2.3% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 7.1% 6.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 39.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/08/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 53 53 54 54 56 57 62 63 63 62 57 18HR AGO 50 49 50 50 51 51 53 54 59 60 60 59 54 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 47 47 49 50 55 56 56 55 50 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 41 43 44 49 50 50 49 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT