* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 48 49 50 51 52 57 59 61 60 54 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 48 49 50 51 52 57 59 61 60 54 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 47 48 48 47 48 51 55 59 57 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 12 13 16 17 7 5 9 19 22 29 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 9 12 14 10 6 4 1 1 1 7 14 SHEAR DIR 337 283 267 264 264 252 310 209 180 206 234 247 252 SST (C) 24.3 23.9 24.2 24.8 24.8 25.7 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.0 24.9 22.7 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 100 98 100 104 104 110 111 111 114 109 109 95 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 85 87 91 91 96 96 96 102 101 102 88 83 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -55.2 -53.9 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 5 5 6 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 35 33 31 31 30 32 43 47 52 56 48 45 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 31 31 31 32 31 32 33 34 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 61 73 65 58 17 3 -29 -48 -29 57 12 34 200 MB DIV -12 23 34 0 -43 -48 -19 7 24 35 50 19 50 700-850 TADV 5 3 -1 1 0 -2 3 8 8 13 4 -92 -129 LAND (KM) 1383 1481 1582 1701 1821 2066 2209 2315 2173 1853 1475 1218 764 LAT (DEG N) 35.0 34.4 33.8 33.0 32.2 30.3 29.3 28.9 29.1 30.3 32.5 35.3 38.5 LONG(DEG W) 47.5 46.3 45.2 44.2 43.2 41.9 40.9 39.4 37.1 33.2 27.7 22.5 18.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 9 7 8 14 22 26 25 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 12. 14. 16. 15. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 35.0 47.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.54 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 16.7% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 1.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.1% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/08/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 48 49 50 51 52 57 59 61 60 54 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 48 49 50 51 56 58 60 59 53 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 45 46 47 52 54 56 55 49 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 37 38 39 44 46 48 47 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT