* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 45 47 49 50 54 57 60 60 60 59 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 45 47 49 50 54 57 60 60 60 59 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 44 45 47 48 48 50 54 57 59 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 5 11 11 17 12 3 2 12 18 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 11 9 8 12 7 11 4 8 1 1 5 10 SHEAR DIR 309 321 269 265 258 246 268 317 228 197 222 249 294 SST (C) 24.7 24.6 24.2 24.8 25.1 25.0 25.6 25.5 25.9 25.4 24.8 24.8 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 103 102 100 105 107 105 109 108 112 111 107 106 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 88 87 92 93 92 95 93 99 102 99 96 90 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.9 -54.4 -54.8 -54.6 -55.0 -54.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 4 2 700-500 MB RH 37 36 34 31 32 31 36 43 45 50 53 37 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 29 30 31 30 32 32 32 31 31 33 850 MB ENV VOR 21 47 56 68 66 42 11 -12 -52 -41 -12 49 -4 200 MB DIV -27 -9 23 18 -6 -18 -30 5 -5 21 12 33 27 700-850 TADV 8 4 3 -1 2 -4 3 2 8 -1 17 -36 -56 LAND (KM) 1303 1382 1465 1600 1737 1963 2167 2335 2257 1997 1640 1296 1005 LAT (DEG N) 35.5 35.1 34.6 33.7 32.8 31.2 29.8 28.7 28.4 29.1 30.8 31.8 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 48.5 47.3 46.2 45.0 43.8 42.2 40.7 39.4 38.2 35.2 30.5 26.0 22.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 12 13 12 10 9 6 9 18 20 18 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 15. 15. 15. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 35.5 48.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 372.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.54 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.20 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 15.4% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 2.2% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.9% 5.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/08/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 44 45 47 49 50 54 57 60 60 60 59 18HR AGO 45 44 44 45 47 49 50 54 57 60 60 60 59 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 44 46 47 51 54 57 57 57 56 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 39 40 44 47 50 50 50 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT