* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 45 48 48 51 55 59 60 60 57 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 45 48 48 51 55 59 60 60 57 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 43 45 47 47 48 51 55 59 59 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 8 2 7 13 15 15 2 0 3 11 15 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 11 8 8 13 10 10 10 6 0 -4 11 SHEAR DIR 316 302 288 259 246 250 236 336 176 73 214 229 303 SST (C) 24.7 24.7 24.5 24.2 24.8 24.7 25.2 25.5 26.0 25.7 25.6 24.9 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 103 103 102 100 104 103 107 109 114 113 112 105 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 89 88 87 91 90 93 95 101 103 101 93 91 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.8 -55.3 -55.1 -54.9 -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 37 37 36 32 32 32 31 41 44 47 50 48 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 27 27 28 30 29 30 31 32 31 30 28 850 MB ENV VOR 14 19 52 59 65 60 36 15 -9 -41 -38 -11 36 200 MB DIV -17 -18 11 13 -10 6 -40 -5 6 13 36 11 3 700-850 TADV 10 10 5 3 -2 -3 -4 -1 6 5 7 1 -26 LAND (KM) 1233 1300 1374 1489 1607 1859 2084 2297 2227 1966 1652 1431 1272 LAT (DEG N) 35.9 35.6 35.2 34.5 33.7 32.2 30.5 28.9 28.0 28.2 29.5 30.4 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 49.7 48.4 47.1 45.9 44.8 42.3 41.0 39.8 38.0 35.2 31.3 28.3 26.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 10 15 16 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. 0. 3. 3. 6. 10. 14. 15. 15. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 35.9 49.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 381.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.53 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.20 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 16.1% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.2% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.1% 5.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/08/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/08/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 43 45 48 48 51 55 59 60 60 57 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 45 48 48 51 55 59 60 60 57 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 43 46 46 49 53 57 58 58 55 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 40 40 43 47 51 52 52 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT