* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 50 50 53 53 55 61 62 63 61 57 V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 50 50 53 53 55 61 62 63 61 57 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 50 51 53 54 56 60 63 65 63 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 9 3 5 15 13 6 6 10 8 23 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 4 10 8 7 9 9 0 0 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 103 298 312 319 246 263 212 255 278 298 238 250 236 SST (C) 24.5 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.2 24.7 25.2 25.6 25.7 26.0 25.8 25.4 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 101 102 103 103 100 104 108 111 112 114 112 108 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 88 89 89 88 92 96 99 99 101 98 94 93 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -53.8 -54.3 -54.3 -55.2 -54.8 -54.9 -54.3 -54.9 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 36 37 37 36 33 33 30 35 48 51 54 50 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 28 29 28 30 30 31 33 32 32 31 29 850 MB ENV VOR 18 16 26 61 65 76 42 11 -1 -33 -39 -46 -9 200 MB DIV -16 -14 -5 10 10 -18 14 -46 9 -7 16 10 3 700-850 TADV 10 10 8 9 5 3 0 -4 5 9 0 2 -12 LAND (KM) 1198 1250 1308 1398 1493 1748 2047 2233 1954 1718 1560 1407 1278 LAT (DEG N) 36.1 35.8 35.5 35.0 34.5 33.1 31.3 29.5 28.1 27.8 28.6 29.3 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 50.5 49.4 48.3 47.0 45.7 42.8 40.1 37.6 35.1 32.7 30.6 28.6 26.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 12 13 14 14 13 12 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 0. 3. 3. 6. 11. 12. 13. 11. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 36.1 50.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 415.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.50 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 18.2% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 4.1% 3.7% 2.1% 0.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 7.4% 6.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 49 50 50 53 53 55 61 62 63 61 57 18HR AGO 50 49 48 49 49 52 52 54 60 61 62 60 56 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 50 50 52 58 59 60 58 54 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 43 43 45 51 52 53 51 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT