* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 46 46 48 50 51 50 49 46 44 38 V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 46 46 48 50 51 50 49 46 44 38 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 49 48 48 49 53 54 51 48 45 42 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 1 4 6 8 19 26 24 26 28 32 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 9 4 6 6 15 9 0 -5 -8 -8 -8 SHEAR DIR 338 36 67 274 280 224 247 238 271 259 266 252 260 SST (C) 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.6 24.7 24.3 24.6 25.3 25.4 25.3 25.5 25.4 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 95 98 100 102 103 101 103 109 109 108 110 109 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 84 86 87 89 88 91 96 97 95 97 98 95 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.2 -54.7 -55.4 -56.8 -57.2 -57.0 -56.6 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 37 38 39 40 40 36 32 27 25 27 28 29 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 28 27 27 27 28 30 28 26 23 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 16 20 18 18 32 79 81 68 34 -65 -93 -81 -55 200 MB DIV 15 0 -8 -25 -17 34 28 7 -63 -60 -27 -39 -9 700-850 TADV 16 13 11 10 9 6 -1 -28 -32 -26 -8 -14 -7 LAND (KM) 1045 1087 1137 1194 1258 1446 1702 1989 2261 2010 1775 1543 1335 LAT (DEG N) 37.3 37.0 36.7 36.4 36.1 35.1 33.7 32.0 30.3 29.2 28.8 29.2 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 52.6 51.4 50.2 49.0 47.8 45.3 42.5 39.9 37.6 35.3 32.9 30.2 27.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 14 13 12 11 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 2. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -6. -9. -14. -16. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.3 52.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.77 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.52 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 18.0% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.8% 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 47 46 46 48 50 51 50 49 46 44 38 18HR AGO 50 49 47 46 46 48 50 51 50 49 46 44 38 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 45 47 49 50 49 48 45 43 37 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 42 44 45 44 43 40 38 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT