* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 49 48 50 52 55 55 55 54 49 30 V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 49 48 50 52 55 55 55 54 49 30 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 49 49 51 54 57 56 52 48 40 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 7 1 7 8 14 31 31 23 31 21 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 8 6 8 1 4 12 6 0 -6 -5 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 333 337 4 289 270 276 255 256 251 254 265 276 273 SST (C) 22.8 23.9 23.9 24.4 24.7 24.4 25.1 25.0 25.5 25.4 25.7 25.8 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 91 97 97 101 103 101 107 106 111 109 111 112 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 83 84 86 88 88 93 94 98 97 98 98 94 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -54.9 -56.4 -57.5 -57.4 -57.2 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 40 39 40 38 40 41 31 23 18 25 28 29 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 29 29 27 28 30 33 33 33 32 28 13 850 MB ENV VOR 34 20 28 21 22 76 84 93 -21 -76 -83 -90 -93 200 MB DIV 16 12 -4 -4 -14 3 32 0 -41 -57 -48 -14 -29 700-850 TADV 14 20 12 12 9 5 -6 -22 -52 -40 -29 8 10 LAND (KM) 1033 1058 1091 1148 1212 1382 1595 1869 2177 2099 1829 1627 1468 LAT (DEG N) 37.4 37.2 37.0 36.7 36.3 35.4 34.3 32.6 30.6 29.1 28.3 28.3 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 53.5 52.3 51.1 49.9 48.7 46.2 43.6 41.2 38.8 36.3 33.7 31.5 29.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 14 14 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 2. 0. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -9. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 5. 5. 5. 4. -1. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.4 53.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 404.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.51 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 19.0% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 3.8% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.6% 6.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 49 49 48 50 52 55 55 55 54 49 30 18HR AGO 50 49 48 48 47 49 51 54 54 54 53 48 29 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 45 47 49 52 52 52 51 46 27 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 41 43 46 46 46 45 40 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT