* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 48 48 45 45 46 46 44 44 44 44 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 48 48 45 45 46 46 44 44 44 44 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 47 46 46 47 50 52 51 50 49 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 11 7 5 12 11 16 23 27 18 21 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 12 6 5 6 2 4 12 10 5 -1 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 16 326 337 360 245 294 261 249 248 271 260 274 257 SST (C) 24.7 23.0 23.3 23.9 24.1 24.7 24.4 24.6 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.6 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 102 91 94 98 99 103 101 103 109 109 109 112 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 79 81 85 85 89 88 90 95 97 97 100 97 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.5 -54.9 -54.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.5 -55.2 -56.3 -57.1 -56.9 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 38 39 40 41 42 45 39 33 29 26 26 26 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 30 30 29 26 26 27 28 27 26 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 42 37 24 29 20 23 60 70 68 50 17 -17 1 200 MB DIV 0 10 12 -3 2 -15 7 23 6 -38 -35 -24 -13 700-850 TADV 19 14 19 13 12 3 0 0 -13 -25 -28 -4 -17 LAND (KM) 995 1028 1034 1070 1119 1271 1468 1706 1955 2222 2041 1739 1464 LAT (DEG N) 37.5 37.5 37.4 37.2 36.9 36.0 35.0 33.7 32.1 30.5 29.3 28.8 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 55.1 54.0 52.8 51.4 50.0 47.7 45.0 42.4 40.4 38.1 35.6 32.5 29.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -6. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -6. -7. -9. -12. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.5 55.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 401.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.51 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 19.3% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.8% 3.2% 1.2% 0.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 7.7% 6.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 49 48 48 45 45 46 46 44 44 44 44 18HR AGO 50 49 49 48 48 45 45 46 46 44 44 44 44 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 45 42 42 43 43 41 41 41 41 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 37 37 38 38 36 36 36 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT