* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 46 45 42 42 42 43 41 38 35 32 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 46 45 42 42 42 43 41 38 35 32 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 47 45 44 44 47 49 48 45 41 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 2 9 10 7 10 10 18 24 35 27 31 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 15 10 7 4 4 3 7 7 4 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 357 329 314 337 11 277 277 253 254 253 264 260 267 SST (C) 25.5 24.8 23.5 23.3 24.0 24.4 24.7 24.9 24.8 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 108 103 94 93 98 101 103 105 104 108 108 110 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 87 81 81 84 86 89 91 92 95 96 97 97 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -54.5 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.7 -55.9 -57.2 -57.4 -57.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 40 40 40 41 42 42 43 36 29 21 19 22 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 32 30 30 30 27 27 27 28 28 25 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 58 55 49 41 48 23 54 59 82 80 37 -56 -71 200 MB DIV -5 8 21 -3 8 -9 -9 14 1 2 -55 -62 -21 700-850 TADV 13 15 12 19 15 8 12 -12 -10 -47 -38 -33 -1 LAND (KM) 928 967 990 1017 1052 1155 1331 1550 1782 2053 2162 1895 1663 LAT (DEG N) 37.7 37.8 37.8 37.6 37.3 36.7 35.7 34.5 33.3 31.8 30.3 29.3 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 56.3 55.2 54.1 52.9 51.6 49.3 46.8 44.2 41.6 39.0 36.5 34.0 31.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 13 13 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 2. -1. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -16. -20. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -8. -8. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.7 56.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 403.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.51 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.42 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 17.5% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.5% 5.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 48 46 45 42 42 42 43 41 38 35 32 18HR AGO 50 49 48 46 45 42 42 42 43 41 38 35 32 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 43 40 40 40 41 39 36 33 30 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 36 36 36 37 35 32 29 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT