* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 45 44 41 37 36 39 39 38 40 35 V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 45 44 41 37 36 39 39 38 40 35 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 47 46 44 41 42 45 47 47 45 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 4 7 12 5 13 14 20 26 29 26 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 12 11 5 8 0 3 -1 0 0 -1 -9 SHEAR DIR 350 11 47 339 353 177 278 250 254 245 261 252 262 SST (C) 25.7 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.8 23.4 24.3 24.1 25.1 24.8 25.8 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 110 107 105 103 103 94 100 99 106 104 112 112 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 91 89 88 87 88 81 86 86 92 91 97 96 95 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -55.5 -56.8 -57.6 -57.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 40 41 39 39 41 41 43 38 30 23 20 25 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 31 29 30 29 25 25 27 27 26 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 56 60 49 38 37 30 33 46 65 70 -31 -77 -92 200 MB DIV -30 7 5 11 13 8 -20 11 18 -15 -94 -27 -37 700-850 TADV 5 10 14 10 24 11 3 0 -13 -25 -32 -27 -7 LAND (KM) 980 988 1001 1056 1078 1151 1260 1434 1654 1892 2106 2284 2205 LAT (DEG N) 37.0 37.2 37.4 37.2 37.0 36.5 35.9 34.9 33.5 32.0 30.6 29.5 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 56.9 56.0 55.2 54.1 53.0 50.7 48.5 46.2 44.1 42.0 40.3 38.8 37.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 4. 0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -4. -6. -10. -12. -11. -13. -15. -16. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -13. -14. -11. -11. -12. -10. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.0 56.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 419.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.49 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 17.0% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.4% 5.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 47 45 44 41 37 36 39 39 38 40 35 18HR AGO 50 49 47 45 44 41 37 36 39 39 38 40 35 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 43 40 36 35 38 38 37 39 34 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 36 32 31 34 34 33 35 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT