* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 44 43 43 39 36 36 39 39 42 42 V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 44 43 43 39 36 36 39 39 42 42 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 46 46 46 43 42 43 45 48 51 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 8 9 13 12 11 9 9 18 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 6 5 8 6 6 5 8 6 6 2 0 SHEAR DIR 333 360 30 53 10 344 315 340 251 225 246 261 240 SST (C) 25.0 25.5 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.7 24.6 25.2 25.1 25.8 25.5 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 102 107 108 106 103 102 101 106 106 112 108 110 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 89 90 89 87 87 87 91 91 96 93 94 94 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -54.7 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -55.7 -56.7 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 43 43 44 44 43 40 41 43 38 36 30 33 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 33 30 29 32 29 29 28 29 27 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 65 53 57 42 31 29 1 37 45 72 41 16 -1 200 MB DIV -26 -26 0 -10 6 15 -36 -10 -12 -1 -15 -37 -4 700-850 TADV 2 3 10 9 7 11 5 10 -3 -2 -19 -12 -8 LAND (KM) 1016 1025 1037 1077 1122 1180 1281 1415 1591 1772 1958 2076 2153 LAT (DEG N) 36.5 36.6 36.7 36.7 36.6 36.1 35.4 34.5 33.3 32.1 30.9 30.2 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 57.5 56.8 56.1 55.1 54.2 52.2 50.1 48.3 46.5 44.8 43.1 41.9 40.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -11. -14. -14. -11. -11. -8. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 36.5 57.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 407.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.51 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 13.6% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.9% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/06/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 48 47 44 43 43 39 36 36 39 39 42 42 18HR AGO 50 49 48 45 44 44 40 37 37 40 40 43 43 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 42 42 38 35 35 38 38 41 41 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 39 35 32 32 35 35 38 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT