* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 51 49 47 46 42 41 39 44 47 47 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 51 49 47 46 42 41 39 44 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 54 54 54 52 48 47 49 53 57 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 7 11 16 16 14 6 6 7 7 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 5 4 3 5 7 4 2 3 0 5 0 SHEAR DIR 66 351 333 5 25 336 358 310 328 298 299 224 236 SST (C) 24.5 24.6 25.0 25.4 25.7 25.0 24.8 24.1 24.9 24.9 25.5 25.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 100 99 102 106 110 104 103 98 104 104 109 105 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 83 85 88 91 88 87 84 89 90 95 91 93 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -54.3 -54.6 -55.0 -55.6 -55.1 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 48 43 42 42 41 43 40 44 48 41 36 32 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 34 33 32 31 30 31 29 28 26 27 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR 91 78 69 62 57 41 19 0 21 34 58 29 7 200 MB DIV 6 -6 -15 -13 -10 60 -6 -30 -2 -21 -9 -29 -20 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 5 12 10 1 0 -4 -3 8 0 0 LAND (KM) 1031 999 966 968 972 1071 1145 1239 1362 1536 1741 1912 2036 LAT (DEG N) 36.0 36.4 36.8 37.0 37.1 36.9 36.4 35.7 34.9 33.8 32.5 31.5 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 58.4 58.3 58.2 57.5 56.8 54.7 52.7 50.7 48.7 46.6 44.5 42.7 41.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 4 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 2 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -17. -17. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -13. -14. -16. -11. -8. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 36.0 58.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 442.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.47 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 14.6% 12.4% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.6% 4.8% 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 53 51 49 47 46 42 41 39 44 47 47 18HR AGO 55 54 53 51 49 47 46 42 41 39 44 47 47 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 47 45 44 40 39 37 42 45 45 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 41 40 36 35 33 38 41 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT