* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 52 50 48 48 45 43 45 44 47 44 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 52 50 48 48 45 43 45 44 47 44 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 53 53 54 53 49 48 49 51 54 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 2 6 9 9 14 4 8 10 10 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 3 3 5 8 5 4 4 1 6 3 7 SHEAR DIR 355 38 288 334 11 1 340 288 303 278 253 226 247 SST (C) 24.8 24.5 25.0 25.4 25.9 25.3 24.8 24.1 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.7 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 104 100 103 106 111 107 103 98 103 103 101 101 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 84 85 87 90 89 87 85 88 88 87 86 86 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 51 51 46 42 40 38 37 42 45 40 37 33 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 36 35 34 33 32 32 30 28 28 27 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 94 86 75 72 67 53 36 23 15 48 51 47 27 200 MB DIV -14 7 4 -7 -4 -2 31 -23 -5 -19 -1 -11 -20 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 2 8 17 22 -6 2 0 0 -9 -8 LAND (KM) 1087 1025 963 935 907 963 1011 1075 1233 1398 1556 1697 1819 LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.2 36.8 37.2 37.5 37.5 37.6 37.1 36.0 35.0 34.2 33.4 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 58.2 58.3 58.3 58.0 57.6 55.9 53.7 51.5 49.2 47.0 44.8 43.3 42.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 7 5 4 5 8 9 10 10 10 9 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 14 CX,CY: -3/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -11. -14. -15. -19. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -10. -12. -10. -11. -8. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 35.5 58.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.94 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 402.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.51 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.14 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 14.7% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.7% 5.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 53 52 50 48 48 45 43 45 44 47 44 18HR AGO 55 54 53 52 50 48 48 45 43 45 44 47 44 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 48 46 46 43 41 43 42 45 42 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 41 41 38 36 38 37 40 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT