* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 51 50 48 46 43 39 39 43 44 43 V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 51 50 48 46 43 39 39 43 44 43 V (KT) LGEM 55 52 51 51 52 53 53 50 46 46 49 52 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 4 1 5 13 12 11 11 3 8 13 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -4 5 4 5 10 5 3 5 8 7 6 SHEAR DIR 193 323 4 336 290 35 341 359 310 330 224 244 245 SST (C) 25.1 24.8 24.5 24.8 25.3 25.8 25.1 24.6 24.0 24.9 25.0 24.9 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 106 103 99 101 105 110 105 101 97 104 105 104 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 91 87 84 84 86 91 87 85 83 90 91 89 89 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -54.3 -54.0 -54.7 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.3 0.9 1.4 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 6 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 51 52 50 44 41 41 37 37 42 41 36 34 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 39 37 38 36 34 34 33 31 29 31 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 96 90 89 80 76 61 46 36 17 36 55 77 59 200 MB DIV -8 -6 17 10 -8 5 36 -6 -11 7 9 -19 -32 700-850 TADV 3 0 -2 3 1 12 21 11 2 7 -6 -6 -30 LAND (KM) 1225 1142 1060 1016 965 969 1077 1133 1174 1291 1479 1637 1775 LAT (DEG N) 34.4 35.2 35.9 36.4 36.9 37.2 36.8 36.5 36.2 35.4 34.2 33.3 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 57.5 57.8 58.0 57.9 57.8 56.6 54.8 53.1 51.5 49.5 47.1 45.1 43.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 5 4 6 7 7 8 10 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -9. -12. -16. -18. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -16. -12. -11. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 34.4 57.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.95 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 391.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.52 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.59 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 15.0% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.4% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/05/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 51 51 50 48 46 43 39 39 43 44 43 18HR AGO 55 54 52 52 51 49 47 44 40 40 44 45 44 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 50 48 46 43 39 39 43 44 43 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 42 40 37 33 33 37 38 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT