* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 59 58 57 54 50 46 41 39 38 38 38 V (KT) LAND 60 59 59 58 57 54 50 46 41 39 38 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 60 57 56 55 55 55 55 53 49 48 49 51 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 2 6 3 12 14 12 6 9 11 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 -1 -6 -1 3 8 9 4 5 2 6 10 SHEAR DIR 181 159 164 51 46 6 355 358 329 324 272 289 239 SST (C) 25.9 25.5 25.1 24.7 24.5 25.1 25.4 24.8 24.5 24.6 24.9 25.5 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 113 109 105 101 99 104 107 102 99 101 103 109 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 94 89 85 83 86 89 85 84 86 88 92 89 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 48 44 40 41 41 41 45 44 40 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 43 43 41 39 38 35 34 34 32 31 31 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 124 104 102 100 91 67 46 5 1 1 14 49 62 200 MB DIV 49 -6 -6 17 2 -9 17 -1 -18 11 -4 -17 -3 700-850 TADV 6 1 0 -1 0 4 18 13 2 8 1 8 -5 LAND (KM) 1384 1270 1158 1092 1027 1000 1068 1171 1245 1307 1377 1500 1647 LAT (DEG N) 32.8 33.9 34.9 35.5 36.1 36.6 36.5 36.1 35.5 35.0 34.6 33.8 32.8 LONG(DEG W) 57.4 57.6 57.9 58.1 58.3 57.7 55.8 54.2 53.0 51.5 49.6 47.9 46.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 8 6 5 5 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -18. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -19. -21. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -22. -22. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 32.8 57.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 408.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.50 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.14 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.42 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 16.3% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 3.7% 3.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.6% 5.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 59 59 58 57 54 50 46 41 39 38 38 38 18HR AGO 60 59 59 58 57 54 50 46 41 39 38 38 38 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 54 51 47 43 38 36 35 35 35 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 46 42 38 33 31 30 30 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT