* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 65 64 62 60 55 51 44 41 38 35 36 V (KT) LAND 65 64 65 64 62 60 55 51 44 41 38 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 65 64 63 62 61 58 59 58 53 50 48 49 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 13 8 4 7 15 17 15 19 12 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 4 0 -6 -4 -1 7 8 8 0 3 5 0 SHEAR DIR 218 181 171 174 90 355 11 336 353 307 335 292 283 SST (C) 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.1 24.6 24.8 25.8 25.4 24.7 24.5 24.4 25.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 116 113 108 105 100 100 110 107 102 100 99 104 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 98 93 90 84 83 90 89 86 84 84 89 91 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -53.6 -54.2 -53.2 -53.9 -53.8 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 2.1 2.0 1.1 1.3 0.8 1.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 5 6 6 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 52 50 51 51 51 42 43 43 44 47 53 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 43 43 43 41 39 37 36 37 35 35 35 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 131 126 109 103 104 90 63 28 -8 -21 17 25 62 200 MB DIV 72 46 -19 0 8 -16 -4 32 -7 -1 -12 -7 -25 700-850 TADV 9 9 4 0 -1 2 12 19 4 3 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 1486 1357 1230 1137 1045 987 984 1059 1189 1236 1258 1345 1489 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 33.1 34.2 35.1 35.9 36.6 36.9 36.7 36.0 35.6 35.5 35.0 34.1 LONG(DEG W) 57.1 57.5 57.8 58.0 58.3 58.2 57.1 55.5 53.9 52.2 50.9 49.0 47.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 10 9 6 3 5 7 7 6 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -14. -21. -24. -27. -30. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 31.9 57.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 411.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.50 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.1% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.0% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 2( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 65 64 62 60 55 51 44 41 38 35 36 18HR AGO 65 64 65 64 62 60 55 51 44 41 38 35 36 12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 58 56 51 47 40 37 34 31 32 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 51 46 42 35 32 29 26 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT