* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 74 77 76 75 73 67 63 57 57 53 48 V (KT) LAND 70 72 74 77 76 75 73 67 63 57 57 53 48 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 74 75 74 70 67 66 62 59 58 57 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 19 19 13 3 1 11 11 8 15 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -5 2 0 -4 6 4 2 4 -3 1 8 SHEAR DIR 222 235 224 192 190 159 218 33 357 343 288 291 288 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.3 25.7 25.2 25.1 25.8 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.8 24.5 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 116 111 107 104 109 110 107 103 102 101 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 101 100 96 92 87 89 89 88 86 86 86 90 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.7 -54.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -54.1 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.3 2.0 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 4 4 4 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 45 51 54 54 53 52 41 41 41 46 51 54 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 41 41 44 43 39 37 35 34 32 34 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 130 130 129 125 102 100 84 62 23 -3 -22 0 18 200 MB DIV 37 46 63 63 -16 22 -6 -11 31 3 15 -13 -3 700-850 TADV 3 3 8 7 3 0 0 4 15 -2 10 3 3 LAND (KM) 1596 1572 1494 1383 1273 1088 986 962 1017 1084 1068 1130 1265 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 31.1 31.9 33.0 34.1 35.8 36.8 37.2 37.0 36.9 37.1 36.7 35.9 LONG(DEG W) 57.0 57.0 56.9 57.0 57.1 57.6 57.4 56.8 55.8 54.4 52.6 50.6 48.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 11 10 7 4 3 5 6 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 5 0 0 0 0 2 12 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -14. -12. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 6. 5. 3. -3. -7. -13. -13. -17. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 30.3 57.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.86 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 439.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.47 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 16.3% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.1% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/04/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 5( 9) 5( 13) 5( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 74 77 76 75 73 67 63 57 57 53 48 18HR AGO 70 69 71 74 73 72 70 64 60 54 54 50 45 12HR AGO 70 67 66 69 68 67 65 59 55 49 49 45 40 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 58 56 50 46 40 40 36 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT