* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 79 82 84 81 78 73 66 60 57 53 50 V (KT) LAND 70 74 79 82 84 81 78 73 66 60 57 53 50 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 79 83 83 76 69 66 64 61 59 58 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 2 4 15 12 6 3 11 10 11 8 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 7 0 -1 7 -4 -1 0 1 1 0 5 9 SHEAR DIR 204 206 225 221 172 207 15 357 360 357 330 328 294 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.4 25.8 25.0 25.3 25.8 25.5 25.1 24.7 24.4 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 116 117 120 118 112 104 105 109 106 104 102 100 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 98 102 102 97 89 87 88 87 86 85 86 89 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 5 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 40 43 49 52 52 52 45 42 44 46 48 49 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 41 41 43 45 41 38 36 34 33 34 35 33 850 MB ENV VOR 130 133 136 131 123 91 83 51 27 -15 -14 12 43 200 MB DIV 30 36 36 68 65 3 10 -12 7 14 12 9 -10 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 5 6 2 1 -2 4 10 11 13 14 LAND (KM) 1541 1580 1620 1526 1421 1197 1066 1017 1024 1071 1089 1113 1204 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.1 30.5 31.6 32.7 34.8 36.1 36.7 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.8 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 56.9 56.9 56.9 56.8 56.8 57.3 57.2 56.7 55.9 54.7 53.3 51.1 48.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 8 11 11 9 5 3 4 5 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 14 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -19. -23. -25. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -11. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 14. 11. 8. 3. -4. -10. -13. -17. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.6 56.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.06 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.86 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 494.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.42 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 21.0% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 4.4% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.2% 8.6% 7.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 12.0% 7.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 7( 11) 9( 19) 8( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 74 79 82 84 81 78 73 66 60 57 53 50 18HR AGO 70 69 74 77 79 76 73 68 61 55 52 48 45 12HR AGO 70 67 66 69 71 68 65 60 53 47 44 40 37 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 62 59 56 51 44 38 35 31 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT