* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 77 80 82 83 81 77 72 67 61 57 56 V (KT) LAND 70 74 77 80 82 83 81 77 72 67 61 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 78 82 85 81 72 68 66 63 59 57 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 8 8 15 13 2 5 11 10 11 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 3 0 -2 0 -3 3 2 0 3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 190 213 212 210 213 177 257 295 28 347 353 309 298 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.4 25.3 25.1 25.9 25.5 25.0 24.9 24.3 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 117 120 117 108 105 110 107 103 103 98 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 96 99 103 101 93 88 89 89 86 86 83 83 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -54.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -53.2 -53.8 -53.7 -54.5 -53.9 -54.5 -53.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 2.0 0.9 1.5 0.8 1.5 0.9 1.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 5 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 43 44 45 52 53 54 52 44 44 47 49 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 40 40 41 44 40 37 36 35 34 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 140 130 133 132 129 111 107 83 49 17 -16 -28 18 200 MB DIV 25 35 31 34 69 -2 25 -6 -6 35 -5 24 -14 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 6 2 1 0 3 10 7 8 6 LAND (KM) 1538 1563 1588 1603 1514 1311 1087 987 1014 1074 1090 1103 1129 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.9 31.7 33.8 35.9 36.9 37.0 37.0 36.9 36.9 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 56.8 56.7 56.7 56.8 56.9 56.9 57.2 57.0 55.9 54.4 52.6 51.0 49.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 6 9 9 10 8 4 6 6 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 17 10 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 11. 7. 2. -3. -9. -13. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.5 56.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.86 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 484.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.43 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 20.2% 17.4% 14.0% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 4.8% 2.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 5.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 8.6% 6.8% 4.9% 4.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 24.0% 14.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 6( 10) 8( 17) 9( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 74 77 80 82 83 81 77 72 67 61 57 56 18HR AGO 70 69 72 75 77 78 76 72 67 62 56 52 51 12HR AGO 70 67 66 69 71 72 70 66 61 56 50 46 45 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 62 63 61 57 52 47 41 37 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT