* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 70 73 79 79 79 77 71 65 60 56 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 70 73 79 79 79 77 71 65 60 56 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 66 70 75 79 74 69 67 64 58 51 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 11 12 8 18 6 3 4 9 8 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 2 2 5 -3 0 4 3 10 1 4 SHEAR DIR 199 211 228 212 216 181 215 304 25 41 26 184 277 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.7 25.9 25.3 25.8 26.2 25.6 24.8 24.6 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 117 120 120 113 107 109 113 109 103 100 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 96 98 101 102 98 91 89 91 90 86 84 81 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.7 -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -53.9 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.7 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 40 43 44 46 52 55 56 46 42 40 38 39 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 37 38 40 40 44 41 39 38 35 33 31 29 850 MB ENV VOR 142 135 133 134 134 131 102 106 81 61 23 -3 1 200 MB DIV 0 12 30 27 41 82 9 16 5 25 -1 0 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 5 5 5 2 2 11 9 1 12 LAND (KM) 1547 1556 1564 1602 1599 1407 1175 1031 1004 1025 1045 1063 1093 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.3 30.8 32.8 35.1 36.4 36.8 37.0 37.3 37.2 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 56.8 56.8 56.8 56.9 57.0 56.9 57.1 57.3 56.8 55.6 53.3 51.6 50.2 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 3 5 8 11 9 4 4 7 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 15 10 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 4. 1. -1. -5. -8. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 19. 19. 19. 17. 11. 5. 0. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.6 56.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.09 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 428.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.48 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 16.8% 14.4% 12.6% 11.0% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.4% 5.2% 4.3% 3.7% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 26.0% 14.0% 4.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 7( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 66 70 73 79 79 79 77 71 65 60 56 18HR AGO 60 59 62 66 69 75 75 75 73 67 61 56 52 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 63 69 69 69 67 61 55 50 46 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 53 59 59 59 57 51 45 40 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT