* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/03/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 72 75 82 85 85 82 78 74 65 62 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 72 75 82 85 85 82 78 74 65 62 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 68 73 78 85 81 73 68 65 61 56 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 3 6 12 10 15 4 1 14 13 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 -1 1 1 3 -5 2 3 0 6 1 SHEAR DIR 217 199 212 219 232 209 190 131 341 32 360 17 341 SST (C) 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.5 25.6 25.3 25.9 25.4 24.6 24.5 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 120 121 121 118 110 107 111 107 101 99 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 100 99 100 102 102 95 90 92 88 85 84 82 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.9 -55.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.8 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 9 8 8 7 5 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 41 41 45 44 45 55 55 55 45 44 46 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 37 39 40 43 45 42 39 37 37 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 143 141 141 137 141 143 132 115 95 63 29 2 -28 200 MB DIV 1 8 30 33 37 69 20 27 6 11 27 -23 16 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 2 3 9 5 3 1 14 12 0 9 LAND (KM) 1576 1540 1503 1519 1535 1554 1363 1172 1037 1027 1122 1139 1121 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 29.5 29.1 29.4 29.6 31.3 33.3 35.2 36.6 37.1 36.6 36.5 36.8 LONG(DEG W) 56.6 56.7 56.8 56.9 57.0 56.9 56.8 56.8 56.4 55.3 53.4 51.8 50.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 1 3 6 9 10 8 6 6 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 14 16 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 9. 5. 1. -1. -2. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 22. 25. 25. 22. 18. 14. 5. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.8 56.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.09 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 445.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.47 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.18 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 17.4% 14.8% 12.3% 10.6% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 3.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 6.9% 5.5% 4.3% 3.6% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/03/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 8( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 64 68 72 75 82 85 85 82 78 74 65 62 18HR AGO 60 59 63 67 70 77 80 80 77 73 69 60 57 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 63 70 73 73 70 66 62 53 50 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 53 60 63 63 60 56 52 43 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT