* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/02/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 66 69 76 83 86 84 83 80 73 70 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 66 69 76 83 86 84 83 80 73 70 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 68 72 80 83 78 70 67 64 60 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 8 10 14 16 15 4 4 8 1 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 1 -4 0 -3 1 -5 2 3 11 4 SHEAR DIR 237 237 231 202 212 226 203 180 127 307 52 105 135 SST (C) 26.3 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.2 25.5 25.4 25.5 24.9 24.7 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 115 118 117 115 116 119 115 109 108 107 102 101 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 100 98 95 96 100 98 93 91 88 85 84 82 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.0 -55.8 -55.6 -55.6 -54.5 -54.4 -53.7 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.8 1.0 1.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 42 40 40 42 44 45 54 53 50 42 44 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 34 35 37 39 43 44 40 39 39 35 35 850 MB ENV VOR 153 145 143 139 136 136 127 104 101 76 46 26 9 200 MB DIV 0 13 0 11 15 48 56 15 35 8 6 28 10 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -3 0 0 2 9 8 2 2 7 12 11 LAND (KM) 1608 1651 1615 1597 1579 1636 1507 1321 1113 1029 1078 1078 1089 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 30.7 30.1 30.0 29.9 30.6 32.0 33.9 35.9 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 LONG(DEG W) 55.9 56.1 56.4 56.5 56.7 56.6 56.4 56.4 56.3 55.5 54.1 52.7 51.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 2 2 5 9 9 8 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 10 13 14 15 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 5. 3. 2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 21. 28. 31. 29. 28. 25. 18. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 31.2 55.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/02/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 423.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.49 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.20 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.5% 13.7% 11.4% 9.7% 12.6% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.8% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.5% 5.2% 3.9% 3.3% 4.3% 4.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 30.0% 18.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/02/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/02/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 63 66 69 76 83 86 84 83 80 73 70 18HR AGO 55 54 58 61 64 71 78 81 79 78 75 68 65 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 57 64 71 74 72 71 68 61 58 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 55 62 65 63 62 59 52 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT