* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/02/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 65 69 76 82 90 88 85 83 78 71 V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 65 69 76 82 90 88 85 83 78 71 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 68 73 79 84 83 73 66 64 60 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 9 11 10 10 16 17 8 3 11 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 0 0 -3 0 3 -2 -1 3 12 2 SHEAR DIR 242 235 210 209 233 183 231 181 198 26 351 36 345 SST (C) 25.7 26.2 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.5 25.3 25.2 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 110 115 118 118 118 119 118 108 106 105 103 102 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 98 99 99 97 99 101 93 90 87 85 85 85 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.3 -55.7 -55.3 -55.4 -54.4 -54.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 43 42 40 40 42 44 50 54 52 45 41 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 35 35 37 40 42 47 45 41 41 40 37 850 MB ENV VOR 148 151 151 145 141 140 127 122 77 68 51 39 18 200 MB DIV -3 10 16 11 0 38 42 72 4 14 0 30 19 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 0 0 4 5 5 2 7 23 17 LAND (KM) 1561 1616 1667 1622 1576 1588 1590 1407 1188 1069 1075 1067 1061 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 31.2 30.5 30.2 29.8 30.0 31.2 33.2 35.3 36.6 36.9 37.1 37.2 LONG(DEG W) 55.4 55.8 56.1 56.4 56.6 56.7 56.3 56.0 55.9 55.5 54.6 53.4 51.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 6 4 2 4 8 10 9 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 6 9 12 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 10. 6. 5. 3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 27. 35. 33. 30. 28. 23. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 31.9 55.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/02/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 421.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.49 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.20 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 16.1% 13.2% 11.2% 0.0% 13.0% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.2% 4.9% 3.8% 0.0% 4.5% 4.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 30.0% 18.0% 7.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/02/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/02/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 62 65 69 76 82 90 88 85 83 78 71 18HR AGO 55 54 58 61 65 72 78 86 84 81 79 74 67 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 58 65 71 79 77 74 72 67 60 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 56 62 70 68 65 63 58 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT