* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 56 59 62 70 77 84 84 82 78 72 68 V (KT) LAND 50 52 56 59 62 70 77 84 84 82 78 72 68 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 55 59 64 72 78 81 75 67 61 59 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 9 16 20 12 15 17 19 7 8 14 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -5 -4 -3 1 0 2 -6 0 1 15 SHEAR DIR 238 251 239 217 224 235 226 207 190 112 332 12 324 SST (C) 25.0 25.5 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.6 25.8 24.9 25.0 25.0 24.9 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 103 108 111 113 115 115 118 112 104 103 102 103 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 92 94 94 96 95 99 97 90 86 84 86 85 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.2 -56.2 -55.4 -55.4 -55.1 -54.3 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.2 -54.0 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.2 2.1 1.3 2.0 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 5 3 700-500 MB RH 45 44 42 42 42 46 49 56 54 52 43 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 34 36 36 40 42 45 45 42 40 38 37 850 MB ENV VOR 146 142 145 151 143 141 141 136 106 86 81 54 34 200 MB DIV -11 -5 12 19 13 30 45 54 19 16 12 10 16 700-850 TADV -5 0 0 -4 -3 1 6 8 5 0 1 15 19 LAND (KM) 1495 1546 1594 1623 1652 1627 1661 1502 1267 1118 1095 1056 1029 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 32.1 31.5 31.2 30.8 30.1 30.5 32.3 34.7 36.3 36.7 37.2 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 54.8 55.2 55.6 55.7 55.8 56.2 56.2 55.9 55.4 55.0 54.6 53.5 51.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 5 4 4 1 6 11 10 5 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 2 4 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 11. 12. 8. 4. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 20. 27. 34. 34. 32. 28. 22. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 32.7 54.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 368.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.55 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.22 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 11.7% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.3% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 3.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 35.0% 22.0% 11.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/02/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/02/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 56 59 62 70 77 84 84 82 78 72 68 18HR AGO 50 49 53 56 59 67 74 81 81 79 75 69 65 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 60 67 74 74 72 68 62 58 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 51 58 65 65 63 59 53 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT