* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/01/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 60 64 69 77 84 88 86 83 77 72 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 60 64 69 77 84 88 86 83 77 72 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 55 60 64 73 79 82 79 71 65 62 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 13 8 15 11 6 15 17 6 1 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -2 -1 -5 -2 1 0 4 -3 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 237 238 254 233 194 216 219 229 168 176 46 357 352 SST (C) 24.9 25.2 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.0 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.8 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 102 105 109 112 115 115 116 113 103 102 101 102 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 89 92 94 96 95 97 96 89 86 85 86 85 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.1 -56.2 -56.4 -55.3 -55.3 -54.5 -54.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 46 43 43 42 42 45 49 55 60 59 50 49 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 33 35 36 36 39 42 45 44 41 39 38 850 MB ENV VOR 163 146 143 150 152 145 146 131 126 95 87 52 27 200 MB DIV 0 -14 -12 7 26 21 58 51 72 10 23 13 6 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 0 -2 0 1 6 2 0 2 1 11 LAND (KM) 1474 1511 1551 1594 1633 1656 1673 1594 1423 1275 1171 1078 1048 LAT (DEG N) 33.0 32.5 32.0 31.5 31.0 30.3 30.5 31.5 33.3 34.9 36.1 37.0 37.4 LONG(DEG W) 54.5 55.0 55.4 55.6 55.8 56.0 56.0 55.6 55.1 54.6 54.2 53.0 51.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 4 2 3 7 9 7 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 3 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 11. 7. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 19. 27. 34. 38. 36. 33. 27. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 33.0 54.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 361.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.55 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.22 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.30 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 14.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.2% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 26.0% 15.0% 4.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 60 64 69 77 84 88 86 83 77 72 18HR AGO 50 49 52 56 60 65 73 80 84 82 79 73 68 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 54 59 67 74 78 76 73 67 62 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 49 57 64 68 66 63 57 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT