* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/01/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 63 69 75 81 86 86 83 83 80 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 63 69 75 81 86 86 83 83 80 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 60 64 72 77 80 80 74 69 66 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 17 12 9 16 9 11 15 13 7 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -3 0 0 -2 -3 1 -2 0 -2 3 7 SHEAR DIR 273 235 239 250 221 209 201 219 190 164 29 268 323 SST (C) 25.0 24.9 25.1 25.6 26.0 26.5 26.6 26.3 25.2 24.8 24.6 24.8 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 102 102 104 108 111 115 115 114 106 103 101 103 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 86 88 91 94 95 94 96 91 88 86 86 85 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -55.9 -55.8 -56.1 -55.8 -55.3 -55.1 -54.8 -54.8 -53.9 -54.7 -54.0 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.2 2.2 1.1 1.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 48 47 46 44 43 43 45 48 56 53 50 44 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 33 33 34 36 38 40 42 43 41 40 39 850 MB ENV VOR 161 156 147 144 147 155 155 155 154 128 98 80 72 200 MB DIV -8 -1 -14 -4 11 23 26 52 49 -6 24 -3 15 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -5 -2 0 -3 -1 1 3 1 3 1 1 LAND (KM) 1457 1477 1499 1543 1584 1643 1673 1642 1523 1374 1200 1078 1037 LAT (DEG N) 33.3 33.0 32.6 32.1 31.6 30.8 30.5 31.0 32.4 34.0 35.8 37.0 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 54.1 54.6 55.0 55.3 55.6 56.0 56.0 55.6 54.9 54.4 54.2 53.0 51.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 5 3 1 5 8 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 8. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 25. 31. 36. 36. 33. 33. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 33.3 54.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.58 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.20 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 14.3% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.2% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 29.0% 19.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 59 63 69 75 81 86 86 83 83 80 18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 59 65 71 77 82 82 79 79 76 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 53 59 65 71 76 76 73 73 70 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 50 56 62 67 67 64 64 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT