* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/01/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 58 61 68 72 78 82 86 84 83 80 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 58 61 68 72 78 82 86 84 83 80 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 59 63 70 76 78 78 75 69 64 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 15 14 16 12 10 16 17 19 18 7 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 0 -3 -1 -3 -1 -2 0 5 -2 -3 4 SHEAR DIR 298 266 238 245 261 197 227 198 213 178 198 303 285 SST (C) 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.0 25.2 24.4 24.6 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 103 103 105 107 110 115 114 114 112 106 100 100 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 86 88 90 92 95 93 94 95 91 86 84 83 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.6 -56.0 -55.9 -56.3 -55.4 -55.3 -54.4 -54.6 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 8 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 48 48 48 46 46 46 47 50 55 55 51 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 31 32 33 35 36 38 41 44 42 41 39 850 MB ENV VOR 152 161 157 149 146 152 152 143 133 130 91 80 78 200 MB DIV -3 -10 3 -1 -14 38 21 56 52 41 -11 26 3 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -2 -6 -3 -3 -1 -3 -1 1 1 0 3 LAND (KM) 1451 1460 1470 1498 1528 1613 1666 1666 1599 1460 1256 1089 1008 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 33.3 33.1 32.7 32.3 31.4 30.9 31.0 31.8 33.3 35.4 36.9 37.7 LONG(DEG W) 53.7 54.0 54.3 54.7 55.1 55.4 55.3 55.1 54.5 54.0 53.5 52.8 51.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 3 1 3 6 9 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 15. 11. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 22. 28. 32. 36. 34. 33. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 33.5 53.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.13 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 330.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.59 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.24 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 11.3% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.2% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 20.0% 19.0% 7.0% 1.0% 10.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 55 58 61 68 72 78 82 86 84 83 80 18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 58 65 69 75 79 83 81 80 77 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 59 63 69 73 77 75 74 71 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 50 54 60 64 68 66 65 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT