* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/01/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 51 54 61 68 75 81 84 86 81 78 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 51 54 61 68 75 81 84 86 81 78 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 53 61 70 75 78 77 72 65 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 22 18 11 14 7 17 10 16 18 9 4 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 2 -1 0 -2 0 1 0 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 315 298 269 234 224 250 222 225 203 194 200 341 289 SST (C) 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.6 26.2 26.4 26.4 26.3 25.5 24.6 24.3 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 104 103 104 106 108 113 114 113 114 109 102 98 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 86 87 88 90 94 94 93 96 93 87 83 83 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.6 -56.6 -55.7 -55.8 -56.1 -55.3 -55.2 -54.7 -54.8 -54.3 -54.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.4 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 48 47 48 48 47 45 43 48 48 55 49 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 29 31 31 34 35 38 40 42 42 38 37 850 MB ENV VOR 159 152 162 161 155 154 155 145 143 143 106 63 54 200 MB DIV -15 -2 0 10 0 24 24 27 48 52 -4 14 5 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -4 -2 -3 -1 -4 0 -1 -3 1 -1 4 LAND (KM) 1469 1468 1467 1493 1519 1583 1656 1690 1648 1532 1356 1190 1084 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 33.3 33.2 32.9 32.5 31.7 31.0 30.8 31.3 32.6 34.5 36.0 37.0 LONG(DEG W) 53.5 53.8 54.1 54.4 54.7 55.4 55.3 55.0 54.6 54.0 53.2 52.5 51.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 5 4 3 2 5 9 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 23. 30. 36. 39. 41. 36. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.4 53.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.62 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.28 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 10.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.7% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/01/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 51 54 61 68 75 81 84 86 81 78 18HR AGO 45 44 46 49 52 59 66 73 79 82 84 79 76 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 47 54 61 68 74 77 79 74 71 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 45 52 59 65 68 70 65 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT