* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/30/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 52 57 65 70 76 81 86 82 81 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 52 57 65 70 76 81 86 82 81 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 49 52 58 66 73 78 80 76 68 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 25 21 19 11 12 13 14 17 15 13 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 1 -4 -6 -1 -4 -1 4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 331 318 303 276 253 247 210 233 211 214 207 206 266 SST (C) 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.7 26.2 26.3 26.3 25.6 24.6 24.2 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 102 102 103 103 104 108 112 112 114 109 102 97 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 85 85 86 87 90 93 92 95 94 88 83 82 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.5 -56.6 -56.7 -55.9 -56.2 -56.0 -56.0 -55.2 -55.2 -54.6 -55.1 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 8 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 47 48 48 48 48 48 46 49 52 60 59 51 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 28 30 30 32 33 36 39 42 38 37 850 MB ENV VOR 162 151 149 163 160 153 150 137 121 118 109 68 40 200 MB DIV -12 -18 4 0 4 -7 39 19 57 40 28 -21 21 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -2 -4 -2 -2 -4 -1 -2 -1 1 4 -2 LAND (KM) 1456 1467 1469 1485 1501 1564 1627 1670 1678 1592 1380 1217 1119 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 33.5 33.4 33.2 32.9 32.2 31.5 31.1 31.2 32.3 34.3 35.8 36.7 LONG(DEG W) 53.0 53.3 53.5 53.8 54.0 54.3 54.6 54.6 54.0 53.2 52.2 51.7 51.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 3 4 3 1 4 8 10 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 20. 25. 31. 36. 41. 37. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.6 53.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.63 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.25 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 10.6% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.8% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 49 52 57 65 70 76 81 86 82 81 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 50 55 63 68 74 79 84 80 79 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 46 51 59 64 70 75 80 76 75 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 43 51 56 62 67 72 68 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT