* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/30/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 47 49 55 61 65 72 74 78 79 74 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 47 49 55 61 65 72 74 78 79 74 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 48 50 55 63 71 75 78 77 70 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 24 26 22 18 13 6 16 14 20 18 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 1 0 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 349 333 320 304 281 232 258 222 223 195 194 231 353 SST (C) 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.5 26.2 26.4 26.4 26.1 25.2 24.4 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 100 102 103 104 105 106 113 113 113 113 106 99 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 85 86 87 87 88 94 93 93 96 91 85 84 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.3 -56.5 -56.6 -56.4 -55.8 -56.1 -55.7 -55.6 -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 50 50 50 49 47 51 50 54 45 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 27 27 29 31 33 33 36 36 40 39 35 850 MB ENV VOR 168 155 151 152 166 157 153 147 138 144 142 91 47 200 MB DIV -5 -8 -14 4 7 0 37 26 34 51 27 -20 14 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -4 -2 -2 -3 -2 -4 -1 -1 -4 6 0 LAND (KM) 1446 1473 1500 1520 1536 1557 1640 1700 1714 1639 1473 1311 1169 LAT (DEG N) 33.7 33.5 33.2 33.0 32.7 32.4 31.5 30.9 30.8 31.6 33.4 34.9 36.2 LONG(DEG W) 52.4 52.8 53.1 53.4 53.6 53.9 54.2 54.3 54.2 53.9 53.4 52.9 52.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 1 2 7 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 5. 9. 7. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 16. 20. 27. 29. 33. 34. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.7 52.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.23 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.64 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.25 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 10.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.6% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 47 49 55 61 65 72 74 78 79 74 18HR AGO 45 44 44 46 48 54 60 64 71 73 77 78 73 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 51 57 61 68 70 74 75 70 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 43 49 53 60 62 66 67 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT