* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/30/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 46 47 52 57 62 65 71 73 74 69 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 46 47 52 57 62 65 71 73 74 69 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 46 48 53 59 67 74 77 77 71 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 27 26 25 19 9 12 13 17 15 19 10 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -5 -1 1 0 5 3 SHEAR DIR 359 350 330 316 300 242 260 222 213 200 203 176 342 SST (C) 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.8 26.2 26.4 26.2 25.4 25.1 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 101 101 103 103 104 105 109 112 112 113 107 105 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 85 86 86 86 87 90 92 92 94 91 89 85 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.2 -56.3 -56.5 -56.6 -55.9 -56.1 -56.1 -54.9 -54.5 -54.8 -54.2 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 48 49 49 50 49 51 50 49 51 55 59 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 28 27 28 31 33 33 35 39 41 41 38 850 MB ENV VOR 164 161 156 150 154 161 149 151 152 131 135 114 50 200 MB DIV -2 -8 -8 -12 -2 -9 8 46 26 83 40 29 -12 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 -5 -3 -1 -1 -5 0 -2 1 5 6 LAND (KM) 1424 1445 1467 1487 1496 1522 1567 1623 1676 1640 1526 1404 1233 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 33.7 33.5 33.3 33.1 32.7 32.2 31.6 31.1 31.5 32.7 34.0 35.6 LONG(DEG W) 52.3 52.6 53.0 53.3 53.6 54.0 54.2 54.4 54.4 54.2 53.9 53.6 53.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 1 4 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 20. 26. 28. 29. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.9 52.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.64 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.25 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 10.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.6% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 46 47 52 57 62 65 71 73 74 69 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 46 51 56 61 64 70 72 73 68 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 42 47 52 57 60 66 68 69 64 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 41 46 51 54 60 62 63 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT