* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/30/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 48 49 52 54 60 64 68 71 72 69 V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 48 49 52 54 60 64 68 71 72 69 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 49 50 53 58 65 72 75 77 74 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 30 29 28 25 15 17 10 16 16 20 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 3 -3 -3 -2 -4 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 1 360 348 337 318 278 235 216 209 205 173 150 330 SST (C) 24.8 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.3 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 102 101 103 104 104 104 107 111 113 113 111 106 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 85 86 87 86 86 89 92 93 93 93 91 88 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.2 -56.4 -56.5 -56.6 -56.1 -55.6 -56.4 -55.6 -55.8 -54.8 -55.0 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.8 0.6 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 48 49 52 52 51 52 51 46 41 45 50 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 27 28 31 31 34 35 37 39 40 38 850 MB ENV VOR 158 161 165 158 155 176 170 161 160 158 161 138 97 200 MB DIV 0 -3 -8 -2 -5 20 2 38 37 19 33 11 -33 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -1 -3 -4 -3 -2 -5 0 0 1 6 LAND (KM) 1416 1446 1478 1500 1506 1526 1536 1576 1637 1639 1572 1456 1284 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 33.7 33.4 33.2 33.0 32.7 32.4 31.9 31.3 31.3 32.0 33.2 35.0 LONG(DEG W) 51.8 52.3 52.8 53.2 53.6 53.9 54.5 54.9 55.0 54.9 54.7 54.4 54.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 3 2 3 3 1 2 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 27. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.0 51.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 261.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.66 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.26 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.33 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 12.1% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/30/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 47 48 49 52 54 60 64 68 71 72 69 18HR AGO 45 44 44 45 46 49 51 57 61 65 68 69 66 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 46 48 54 58 62 65 66 63 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 39 41 47 51 55 58 59 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT