* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/29/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 48 48 51 56 57 64 69 74 76 75 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 48 48 51 56 57 64 69 74 76 75 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 49 50 53 57 62 70 78 81 80 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 29 32 31 29 26 12 17 14 14 12 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 2 -4 -6 -2 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 15 3 359 352 339 299 251 245 204 199 163 179 71 SST (C) 24.8 24.9 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.5 26.0 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 101 102 101 102 104 104 106 111 114 113 115 113 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 86 85 86 87 86 88 92 95 92 95 95 91 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.8 -56.2 -56.5 -56.6 -56.6 -55.5 -55.7 -56.2 -55.6 -55.0 -55.0 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.6 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 47 48 49 52 52 52 53 51 45 43 47 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 27 26 28 32 32 35 37 40 40 40 850 MB ENV VOR 156 154 161 160 157 153 169 159 171 171 167 165 142 200 MB DIV -8 -2 -3 -3 0 5 26 12 65 13 42 4 2 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 0 0 3 11 LAND (KM) 1399 1434 1469 1484 1500 1502 1529 1575 1631 1651 1637 1538 1374 LAT (DEG N) 34.2 33.9 33.5 33.4 33.2 33.0 32.6 32.0 31.3 31.0 31.2 32.2 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 51.1 51.6 52.1 52.6 53.1 53.7 54.1 54.6 55.2 55.4 55.3 55.1 54.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 3 0 3 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 0 1 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 2. 1. 4. 6. 9. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 6. 11. 12. 19. 24. 29. 31. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.2 51.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.02 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.66 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.25 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 10.7% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.8% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 48 48 48 51 56 57 64 69 74 76 75 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 45 48 53 54 61 66 71 73 72 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 44 49 50 57 62 67 69 68 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 38 43 44 51 56 61 63 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT