* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/29/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 47 49 55 59 66 75 82 88 89 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 47 49 55 59 66 75 82 88 89 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 44 47 54 62 72 85 93 96 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 28 31 33 32 25 18 18 10 13 10 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -3 0 2 -4 -3 -2 -7 0 1 SHEAR DIR 24 13 2 357 348 312 271 219 233 196 148 173 136 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 123 124 125 127 128 130 132 132 130 135 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 101 101 102 103 104 103 106 109 107 105 112 113 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.4 -55.8 -56.2 -56.5 -56.6 -56.1 -55.5 -56.2 -55.8 -55.7 -55.3 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.7 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 48 48 48 48 51 53 53 50 47 43 46 48 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 28 28 27 26 30 32 33 36 39 40 40 850 MB ENV VOR 153 150 158 162 165 159 178 172 178 185 186 186 181 200 MB DIV -27 -10 2 3 -7 -2 39 4 41 39 29 28 4 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -5 -3 -3 0 -1 0 2 7 LAND (KM) 1360 1404 1450 1463 1478 1506 1508 1543 1602 1651 1700 1632 1483 LAT (DEG N) 34.6 34.2 33.7 33.6 33.4 33.0 32.8 32.3 31.6 31.0 30.5 31.1 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 50.7 51.2 51.6 52.1 52.7 53.6 54.1 54.6 55.1 55.4 55.4 55.6 56.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 3 0 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 3 4 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -1. 1. 1. 5. 7. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 15. 19. 26. 35. 42. 48. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 34.6 50.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 46 47 49 55 59 66 75 82 88 89 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 44 46 52 56 63 72 79 85 86 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 41 47 51 58 67 74 80 81 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 33 39 43 50 59 66 72 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT