* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/29/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 44 47 47 48 54 60 68 75 82 88 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 44 47 47 48 54 60 68 75 82 88 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 40 42 44 47 55 66 79 91 98 101 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 27 29 31 35 28 23 11 10 8 10 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 -1 0 -4 -4 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 33 25 17 2 355 340 300 243 225 244 218 152 180 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 124 123 124 126 129 131 134 134 131 136 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 103 102 101 102 103 105 107 110 110 106 114 117 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 -55.7 -56.1 -56.6 -56.5 -55.8 -56.0 -56.2 -56.1 -55.6 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 47 49 49 50 50 54 53 51 47 44 45 47 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 28 28 26 25 29 30 32 34 37 40 850 MB ENV VOR 148 147 146 155 163 165 161 171 170 169 177 178 161 200 MB DIV -38 -30 -5 3 -2 -3 8 14 4 18 1 34 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 -4 0 -2 1 LAND (KM) 1282 1337 1396 1420 1445 1489 1491 1507 1570 1633 1639 1649 1464 LAT (DEG N) 35.4 34.8 34.2 34.0 33.7 33.2 32.9 32.5 31.7 30.9 30.1 30.6 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 50.0 50.8 51.5 52.0 52.5 53.5 54.3 55.1 55.7 56.0 56.0 56.3 56.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 1 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 4 5 13 16 17 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -3. -3. -1. 1. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 14. 20. 28. 35. 42. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 35.4 50.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.69 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.30 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 8.5% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 44 47 47 48 54 60 68 75 82 88 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 45 45 46 52 58 66 73 80 86 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 41 41 42 48 54 62 69 76 82 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 33 34 40 46 54 61 68 74 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT