* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/29/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 49 49 47 49 55 60 67 76 82 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 49 49 47 49 55 60 67 76 82 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 47 48 50 52 57 65 75 88 97 101 Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 26 28 30 33 32 28 19 11 9 14 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 -1 -4 -2 -1 0 -2 -4 -1 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 28 34 26 17 3 351 318 282 235 253 241 206 175 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 123 122 123 125 127 129 132 135 135 136 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 104 103 101 102 102 104 105 108 112 112 111 115 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.4 -55.7 -56.5 -56.6 -56.5 -55.9 -56.4 -56.4 -56.2 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 50 50 52 53 53 51 49 41 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 28 27 27 27 25 27 29 30 31 35 39 850 MB ENV VOR 153 150 151 146 151 165 158 168 163 169 177 172 177 200 MB DIV -32 -34 -30 -8 -3 -8 -6 2 -4 14 24 17 21 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -3 -3 -3 -3 -5 -3 -3 1 1 LAND (KM) 1250 1295 1346 1379 1414 1478 1505 1512 1535 1579 1617 1597 1513 LAT (DEG N) 35.9 35.3 34.7 34.4 34.0 33.4 32.9 32.6 32.2 31.5 30.4 30.5 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 48.9 49.9 50.9 51.5 52.1 53.0 53.9 54.6 55.2 55.9 56.8 57.3 57.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 6 6 5 4 3 4 6 4 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 2 3 7 23 20 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -6. -4. -5. -3. 1. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 31. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 35.9 48.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.04 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.67 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.26 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.04 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 9.1% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 48 49 49 47 49 55 60 67 76 82 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 47 47 45 47 53 58 65 74 80 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 43 41 43 49 54 61 70 76 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 36 34 36 42 47 54 63 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT