* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/28/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 48 48 46 43 49 56 64 68 75 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 48 48 46 43 49 56 64 68 75 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 45 45 47 50 51 53 60 71 84 94 101 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 28 27 28 30 34 30 26 13 10 8 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 -3 -5 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 13 27 30 22 16 1 345 315 251 238 230 221 157 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 123 125 125 126 123 128 129 136 136 134 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 102 104 106 106 105 99 105 106 114 114 111 118 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.4 -56.1 -56.7 -56.8 -56.1 -56.3 -55.9 -55.7 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 49 50 52 53 52 52 55 57 56 52 49 54 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 30 28 27 27 26 24 24 28 30 32 32 35 850 MB ENV VOR 166 151 145 153 150 158 170 151 159 161 184 171 166 200 MB DIV -37 -37 -36 -27 -14 -12 -4 14 8 5 24 9 54 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1249 1223 1228 1276 1369 1545 1600 1554 1512 1545 1616 1618 1610 LAT (DEG N) 36.3 36.2 35.9 35.3 34.4 32.8 32.3 32.6 32.7 32.0 30.8 30.0 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 47.4 48.7 50.0 51.3 52.2 52.8 52.7 53.4 54.3 55.6 56.6 56.2 55.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 10 6 1 5 4 7 6 4 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 17 19 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -8. -6. -5. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. 4. 11. 19. 23. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 36.3 47.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/28/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.15 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/28/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/28/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 47 48 48 46 43 49 56 64 68 75 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 46 46 44 41 47 54 62 66 73 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 42 42 40 37 43 50 58 62 69 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 36 34 31 37 44 52 56 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT