* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/28/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 48 48 48 45 40 37 41 49 56 60 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 48 48 48 45 40 37 41 49 56 60 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 48 49 53 55 55 56 60 68 76 82 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 17 26 26 28 33 32 29 18 12 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -6 -5 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 353 9 19 25 32 15 4 350 323 282 253 194 215 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 122 122 124 125 127 127 128 129 127 126 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 99 103 103 105 105 106 104 104 106 104 102 102 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -55.0 -55.5 -56.2 -56.7 -56.7 -56.4 -56.4 -56.2 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 48 50 53 52 53 53 54 57 58 59 63 60 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 33 31 29 28 27 25 23 22 24 28 31 32 850 MB ENV VOR 190 175 162 152 146 156 151 164 161 169 158 171 175 200 MB DIV -46 -41 -38 -48 -36 -22 -22 -8 -4 14 39 60 22 700-850 TADV 1 -2 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 1 0 -8 0 LAND (KM) 1296 1266 1236 1229 1255 1403 1567 1647 1671 1709 1733 1681 1671 LAT (DEG N) 36.6 36.5 36.4 36.1 35.6 34.1 32.6 31.7 31.3 30.9 30.9 31.4 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 45.3 46.3 47.5 48.9 50.3 52.1 52.9 53.4 53.9 54.0 53.3 53.3 53.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 12 9 6 4 3 3 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -14. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -18. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -10. -13. -9. -1. 6. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 36.6 45.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/28/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -41.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 82.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/28/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/28/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 49 48 48 48 45 40 37 41 49 56 60 18HR AGO 50 49 49 48 48 48 45 40 37 41 49 56 60 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 45 45 42 37 34 38 46 53 57 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 40 37 32 29 33 41 48 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT