* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/27/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 59 59 54 50 44 41 41 45 55 60 V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 59 59 54 50 44 41 41 45 55 60 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 59 60 62 65 66 65 66 68 72 77 82 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 13 17 18 27 28 30 30 30 17 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -6 -7 -6 -3 -2 -3 -1 0 2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 344 351 350 20 29 31 14 360 355 335 295 237 205 SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 114 115 117 121 122 123 123 127 132 132 130 129 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 95 98 101 102 103 103 107 111 110 110 112 106 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -55.6 -56.2 -56.6 -56.8 -56.2 -56.3 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 47 49 52 54 56 57 58 58 59 60 63 67 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 38 36 34 33 29 27 26 25 27 29 34 37 850 MB ENV VOR 216 197 191 184 172 154 154 154 174 166 160 139 159 200 MB DIV 0 -22 -42 -45 -33 -39 -20 -11 -13 6 35 63 87 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 -1 1 0 0 -2 0 0 6 2 -7 LAND (KM) 1344 1296 1262 1245 1258 1297 1350 1467 1595 1715 1795 1759 1541 LAT (DEG N) 37.0 37.0 36.9 36.6 36.1 35.3 34.6 33.5 31.9 30.7 30.1 30.9 32.9 LONG(DEG W) 43.4 44.4 45.4 46.6 47.8 49.8 51.6 53.2 54.3 54.5 53.6 51.8 51.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 9 8 9 7 5 6 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 1 3 14 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -7. -12. -15. -19. -22. -21. -20. -14. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -6. -10. -16. -19. -19. -15. -5. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 37.0 43.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/27/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.69 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.19 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 15.7% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.9% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/27/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/27/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 60 59 59 54 50 44 41 41 45 55 60 18HR AGO 60 59 59 58 58 53 49 43 40 40 44 54 59 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 55 50 46 40 37 37 41 51 56 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 45 41 35 32 32 36 46 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT