* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/27/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 65 63 58 52 47 42 41 43 49 58 V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 65 63 58 52 47 42 41 43 49 58 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 65 65 67 69 69 68 67 69 71 77 83 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 12 17 26 26 28 31 29 23 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -6 -6 -3 -2 -4 -3 0 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 54 343 340 358 26 32 22 4 354 336 324 267 206 SST (C) 26.0 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 113 114 115 118 122 123 123 126 131 133 131 131 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 94 96 99 103 104 102 106 111 112 111 114 111 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -55.5 -55.9 -56.4 -56.7 -56.6 -56.3 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 8 8 9 8 9 7 700-500 MB RH 45 47 48 51 53 55 55 56 58 58 61 63 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 43 41 38 37 34 31 28 27 26 26 28 31 36 850 MB ENV VOR 223 213 199 187 177 171 153 144 158 166 170 156 146 200 MB DIV 25 -6 -17 -39 -40 -47 -23 -15 -18 -22 19 53 85 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 -2 0 2 4 -2 LAND (KM) 1399 1358 1301 1242 1228 1287 1357 1412 1518 1683 1759 1859 1667 LAT (DEG N) 36.9 36.9 37.1 37.1 36.7 35.5 34.6 34.0 32.7 31.0 29.9 30.0 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 42.5 43.3 44.1 45.4 46.8 49.2 50.9 52.6 54.1 54.5 53.9 51.8 49.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 8 11 12 10 7 9 9 7 7 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 6 7 18 8 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. -24. -22. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -13. -18. -23. -24. -22. -16. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 36.9 42.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/27/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.67 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 16.9% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.7% 5.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/27/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/27/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 2( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 65 65 63 58 52 47 42 41 43 49 58 18HR AGO 65 64 64 64 62 57 51 46 41 40 42 48 57 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 59 54 48 43 38 37 39 45 54 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 48 42 37 32 31 33 39 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT