* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/27/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 70 71 68 63 57 54 54 54 62 66 V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 70 71 68 63 57 54 54 54 62 66 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 69 70 71 73 77 78 79 78 78 85 96 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 9 3 2 5 16 30 25 28 25 21 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -1 -1 -4 -5 -3 -3 -3 -5 -2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 145 119 3 11 8 1 21 24 5 346 333 292 269 SST (C) 25.6 25.4 26.0 26.7 26.7 26.3 26.6 27.4 27.4 27.1 27.1 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 113 111 117 123 121 119 125 133 130 127 127 139 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 97 103 108 102 105 114 122 113 110 110 124 129 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.2 -55.2 -54.9 -55.0 -55.4 -55.3 -55.7 -56.5 -57.4 -57.0 -56.1 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 1.6 2.1 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 3 4 6 5 6 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 44 47 49 50 52 49 54 55 55 58 59 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 44 45 43 41 39 35 33 30 30 29 28 33 34 850 MB ENV VOR 222 194 160 184 205 185 134 141 185 161 152 165 194 200 MB DIV 15 -13 -11 -11 -2 -25 -46 -15 0 -3 11 23 39 700-850 TADV 19 12 5 4 -1 -3 -1 0 -4 -2 1 0 4 LAND (KM) 1458 1252 1169 1314 1487 1310 1021 1413 1769 1595 1345 1391 1586 LAT (DEG N) 37.5 38.7 38.1 36.1 34.7 36.9 37.8 33.8 30.8 32.5 34.6 33.3 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 40.5 42.3 44.9 46.1 45.3 44.3 50.0 53.9 52.1 50.4 52.7 56.2 56.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 20 17 10 18 26 22 12 13 15 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 7 3 2 8 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 18 CX,CY: -8/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 323 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -12. -17. -20. -22. -24. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 3. -2. -8. -11. -11. -11. -3. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 37.5 40.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/27/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.70 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 23.7% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.7% 2.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 9.1% 7.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/27/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/27/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 68 70 71 68 63 57 54 54 54 62 66 18HR AGO 65 64 65 67 68 65 60 54 51 51 51 59 63 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 64 61 56 50 47 47 47 55 59 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 53 48 42 39 39 39 47 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT