* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/26/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 70 78 81 79 73 64 60 58 57 59 60 V (KT) LAND 55 62 70 78 81 79 73 64 60 58 57 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 55 66 75 81 80 66 56 51 51 53 57 61 64 Storm Type TROP EXTP TROP SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 40 32 9 17 17 33 36 15 17 28 28 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 -3 -8 -2 -3 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 227 228 203 160 49 268 333 325 16 14 341 340 357 SST (C) 26.9 26.5 25.7 24.9 23.6 21.3 19.0 22.1 26.5 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 117 112 102 88 79 91 123 141 138 134 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 111 111 106 95 80 72 82 111 136 130 124 126 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.6 -56.0 -55.4 -55.9 -56.1 -56.1 -56.0 -55.9 -56.0 -56.5 -56.7 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 3 0 0 0 3 7 7 9 8 700-500 MB RH 43 42 40 41 50 38 47 60 57 58 58 60 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 35 42 45 44 41 37 34 32 31 31 33 34 850 MB ENV VOR 168 194 243 260 221 37 46 98 92 104 140 130 92 200 MB DIV -1 22 29 -9 28 -69 -29 -19 -30 18 -31 46 19 700-850 TADV -14 7 13 3 0 4 -1 0 4 2 -8 1 4 LAND (KM) 1888 1982 2015 1887 1597 1021 607 559 890 1396 1587 1718 2121 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 32.5 33.8 36.9 40.5 44.2 44.3 42.0 38.7 33.3 28.2 26.3 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 41.0 39.1 36.4 34.5 35.2 40.5 46.1 50.6 54.3 56.0 54.5 51.4 47.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 20 29 34 33 23 18 22 24 29 21 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 15 26 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. -7. -10. -11. -14. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 2. 6. 10. 12. 10. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 23. 26. 24. 18. 9. 5. 3. 2. 4. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 32.5 41.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/26/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.85 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.14 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.79 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.63 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.21 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 20.8% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 1.7% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 7.5% 6.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/26/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/26/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 8( 12) 7( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 62 70 78 81 79 73 64 60 58 57 59 60 18HR AGO 55 54 62 70 73 71 65 56 52 50 49 51 52 12HR AGO 55 52 51 59 62 60 54 45 41 39 38 40 41 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 46 40 31 27 25 24 26 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT