* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/26/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 66 76 83 90 94 96 93 87 84 80 80 V (KT) LAND 50 57 66 76 83 90 94 96 93 87 84 80 80 V (KT) LGEM 50 60 69 77 80 75 76 82 86 85 84 83 83 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 35 38 30 16 9 7 10 30 25 19 23 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 0 1 -6 -5 -5 -4 -1 -3 1 -8 SHEAR DIR 217 215 211 183 127 171 74 358 3 25 13 359 334 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.7 24.8 25.3 26.8 26.8 26.0 26.6 27.5 27.5 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 120 116 109 114 127 125 118 125 135 133 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 107 107 106 99 105 117 111 106 112 126 120 118 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -56.6 -56.6 -55.9 -55.5 -55.1 -54.5 -55.4 -56.0 -56.2 -56.3 -56.4 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 0 3 5 6 4 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 46 46 43 45 54 45 49 52 50 56 62 60 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 28 36 43 44 41 39 36 34 34 34 34 37 850 MB ENV VOR 152 171 206 234 236 124 166 192 160 114 142 173 169 200 MB DIV -7 0 36 53 24 -43 -26 29 -47 -33 -2 -6 28 700-850 TADV -5 -22 2 1 0 5 7 3 -1 1 -2 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 1728 1763 1831 1813 1609 1037 1426 1643 1173 968 1412 1860 1741 LAT (DEG N) 33.3 33.6 33.9 35.4 38.3 40.4 34.7 33.9 38.1 38.1 33.7 30.0 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 42.8 41.4 39.5 37.5 37.1 43.6 47.1 43.4 44.8 51.2 54.2 51.7 48.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 18 24 26 30 25 18 23 25 25 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 1 7 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 12 CX,CY: 11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 19.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 5. 11. 15. 14. 13. 11. 9. 8. 8. 7. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 26. 33. 40. 44. 46. 43. 37. 34. 30. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 33.3 42.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/26/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.79 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.06 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.80 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.71 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.24 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.30 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 16.6% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 2.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 6.2% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/26/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/26/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 9( 12) 12( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 57 66 76 83 90 94 96 93 87 84 80 80 18HR AGO 50 49 58 68 75 82 86 88 85 79 76 72 72 12HR AGO 50 47 46 56 63 70 74 76 73 67 64 60 60 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 47 54 58 60 57 51 48 44 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT