* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/25/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 40 47 69 78 83 85 86 81 77 74 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 40 47 69 78 83 85 86 81 77 74 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 30 33 39 53 60 60 61 64 65 63 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 12 12 17 30 34 16 8 11 18 27 26 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 4 1 6 3 -1 -4 -7 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 339 317 269 231 217 207 126 24 11 31 34 18 356 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.4 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 125 126 124 117 114 115 119 120 119 118 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 106 107 109 106 98 94 95 98 99 97 95 94 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -58.0 -57.9 -57.6 -57.3 -56.1 -55.2 -55.2 -55.2 -55.8 -55.9 -55.4 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 4 4 3 2 4 4 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 55 53 48 44 43 33 34 45 50 50 53 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 23 27 41 44 42 40 38 36 36 36 850 MB ENV VOR 79 95 108 131 159 208 217 193 166 168 155 161 156 200 MB DIV -1 48 57 -5 -1 32 -44 -2 -32 -27 -18 3 13 700-850 TADV 2 -2 -3 -4 -32 -6 18 7 3 -1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1697 1731 1769 1780 1799 1673 1526 1429 1369 1328 1287 1265 1259 LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.2 32.1 32.5 32.8 34.7 35.9 36.2 35.9 35.7 35.7 35.7 35.7 LONG(DEG W) 46.9 45.9 44.9 43.6 42.3 41.1 41.8 43.2 45.2 46.9 48.3 49.2 49.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 12 10 8 6 7 7 7 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. 0. -3. -7. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 17. 21. 21. 19. 17. 15. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 17. 39. 48. 53. 55. 56. 51. 47. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.2 46.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/25/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.80 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.76 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.42 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 11.3% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.3% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 19.0% 8.0% 9.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/25/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/25/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 40 47 69 78 83 85 86 81 77 74 18HR AGO 30 29 32 37 44 66 75 80 82 83 78 74 71 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 38 60 69 74 76 77 72 68 65 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 27 49 58 63 65 66 61 57 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT