* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/25/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 35 40 45 63 78 83 87 88 84 83 79 V (KT) LAND 30 31 35 40 45 63 78 83 87 88 84 83 79 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 30 32 36 51 63 63 62 64 66 65 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 11 8 19 33 21 9 7 15 11 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 0 3 1 8 -4 -7 -4 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 346 339 314 251 224 199 157 100 360 23 26 31 15 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.9 26.3 26.6 26.8 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 124 125 125 119 112 112 116 118 120 117 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 103 105 107 107 101 93 93 97 97 97 94 97 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.7 -58.1 -57.9 -57.6 -56.8 -55.9 -55.8 -55.6 -56.0 -55.7 -55.8 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.4 0.6 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 4 4 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 53 56 54 48 45 39 43 45 47 50 53 57 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 22 23 33 44 43 42 41 37 37 37 850 MB ENV VOR 65 80 99 110 134 193 201 189 170 163 153 149 158 200 MB DIV 1 11 49 44 -3 18 4 -10 -26 -34 -27 18 43 700-850 TADV 3 1 -2 -1 -7 -42 9 9 3 1 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1587 1622 1658 1709 1765 1707 1557 1427 1315 1246 1184 1183 1220 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 33.0 32.9 32.9 32.8 34.5 36.4 37.0 36.9 36.7 36.9 36.6 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 47.4 46.5 45.7 44.4 43.1 40.8 40.4 41.8 44.2 46.3 47.5 48.6 49.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 9 11 11 10 6 8 9 7 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 11. 21. 22. 22. 21. 17. 17. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 10. 15. 33. 48. 53. 57. 58. 54. 53. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.1 47.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/25/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.76 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.41 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 12.2% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.8% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 10.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 6.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/25/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/25/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 35 40 45 63 78 83 87 88 84 83 79 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 43 61 76 81 85 86 82 81 77 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 54 69 74 78 79 75 74 70 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 43 58 63 67 68 64 63 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT