* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/24/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 46 52 66 88 94 97 99 99 99 98 V (KT) LAND 35 37 41 46 52 66 88 94 97 99 99 99 98 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 41 45 61 81 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 17 12 8 28 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -3 -4 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 6 354 341 323 261 223 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 26.8 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 123 124 126 123 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 101 103 106 108 107 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.3 -57.7 -58.1 -58.1 -57.5 -56.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 53 57 56 51 48 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 20 21 25 42 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 58 80 103 109 162 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 4 7 46 40 0 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 -1 -2 -16 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1614 1625 1637 1689 1746 1820 1802 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.8 32.9 32.9 32.8 32.6 33.1 34.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.6 47.0 46.4 45.3 44.1 41.2 38.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 10 11 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 3 2 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 17. 31. 53. 59. 62. 64. 64. 64. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.8 47.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/24/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.74 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.35 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 14.7% 12.3% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 4.8% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.5% 4.9% 3.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 12.0% 21.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/24/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/24/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 41 46 52 66 88 94 97 99 99 99 98 18HR AGO 35 34 38 43 49 63 85 91 94 96 96 96 95 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 42 56 78 84 87 89 89 89 88 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 45 67 73 76 78 78 78 77 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT