* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/24/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 46 55 66 70 73 77 78 81 81 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 46 55 66 70 73 77 78 81 81 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 42 52 65 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 18 20 19 13 18 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -2 -5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 23 9 359 351 329 237 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.1 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 124 123 125 126 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 100 103 104 106 109 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -57.0 -57.3 -57.7 -58.0 -57.7 -57.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 -0.3 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 53 57 56 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 18 19 21 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 57 60 79 104 119 178 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 16 -2 2 37 -6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 0 -1 -5 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1633 1643 1654 1684 1717 1805 1902 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.4 32.4 32.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.2 47.8 47.3 46.4 45.5 43.1 40.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 6 8 9 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 3 3 3 1 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 423 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 31. 35. 38. 42. 43. 46. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.5 48.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/24/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.73 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.34 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 12.2% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 3.7% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.3% 4.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 11.0% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/24/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/24/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 42 46 55 66 70 73 77 78 81 81 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 43 52 63 67 70 74 75 78 78 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 47 58 62 65 69 70 73 73 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 38 49 53 56 60 61 64 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT