* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/24/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 48 53 56 58 61 62 64 65 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 43 48 53 56 58 61 62 64 65 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 38 39 44 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 23 19 17 22 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -2 -4 -5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 16 17 17 4 346 317 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 127 129 131 131 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 105 101 104 108 111 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.1 -56.4 -56.8 -56.9 -57.8 -57.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 47 48 49 53 55 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 18 17 17 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 75 83 70 73 112 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 21 -4 10 -10 30 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 6 5 -2 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1536 1539 1542 1554 1566 1625 1755 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.4 33.3 33.2 33.2 33.1 33.1 32.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.2 48.6 48.9 48.6 48.3 46.1 43.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 0 3 6 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 2 3 4 3 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 26. 27. 29. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.4 48.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/24/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.71 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.37 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.1% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.2% 3.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/24/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/24/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 43 48 53 56 58 61 62 64 65 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 45 50 53 55 58 59 61 62 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 40 45 48 50 53 54 56 57 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 37 40 42 45 46 48 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT