* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL132017 09/08/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 85 86 84 83 82 80 79 78 76 75 76 V (KT) LAND 80 83 85 70 53 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 80 82 82 69 53 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 4 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 349 318 1 44 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 170 167 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 155 158 157 154 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 10 8 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 70 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 9 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -10 -4 0 13 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 31 39 39 32 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 4 2 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 150 100 50 -29 -108 -237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 20.9 20.6 20.2 19.7 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.0 96.4 97.0 97.6 98.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 43 31 37 38 52 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -22. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 21.1 95.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/08/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.92 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.26 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.42 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.31 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 160.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 32.7% 22.5% 15.7% 14.0% 15.4% 16.5% 0.0% Logistic: 15.0% 39.7% 30.0% 21.9% 19.4% 22.4% 15.6% 8.3% Bayesian: 13.9% 60.6% 40.0% 22.1% 9.9% 14.0% 13.6% 1.7% Consensus: 14.1% 44.3% 30.8% 19.9% 14.4% 17.3% 15.2% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/08/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/08/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 83 85 70 53 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 80 79 81 66 49 31 25 24 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 80 77 76 61 44 26 20 19 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 53 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 83 74 68 65 57 51 50 49 49 49 49 49 IN 12HR 80 83 85 76 70 66 60 59 58 58 58 58 58